In March 2021, the emballage ship Ever Given got stuck in the Suez Passe for six days, triggering a worldwide supply-chain crisis with large economic consequences. This opposition was a powerful reminder of how intertwined the Mediterranean Sea and the Indo-Pacific are. Yet, these two nautique areas are often seen as separate regions despite a growing list of shared challenges from climate to trade and security. Russia’s war in Ukraine has only added to this connectivity by destabilizing the energy market and provoking a food crisis.

Addressing these challenges requires overcoming the limits of existing institutions and multilateral formats, which are often restricted in their geographical scope, or paralyzed by internal divisions. In this context, innovative coalitions are emerging to tackle multinational issues, as recently illustrated with the Quad and the Israel-India-United Arab Emirates-United States “I2U2” grouping. Cooperation between France, Egypt, and India could add an arrogant new element to this web of overlapping coalitions.

Trilateral affaire between Paris, Cairo, and New Delhi would serve as a geostrategic corridor that connects the Mediterranean to the Indo-Pacific and allows the three countries to work together when interests align without being bound in a formal châssis. To succeed, the three countries should lied from pursuing far-fetched objectives, and instead foyer on vrai issues such as nautique security, undersea cables, and food resilience.

 

 

Converging Geostrategic Interests

The potential for trilateral cooperation between France, Egypt, and India stems from their converging geostrategic interests. All three countries are nautique nations that are committed to preserving the stability of the transoceanic space stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Indo-Pacific. They share the same concern: that growing geopolitical tensions could jeopardize such stability, as recently witnessed in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Strait of Hormuz. The three countries are also aware of the destabilizing impulsion of climate cassé on the oceans, as illustrated by mounting illegal fishing activities and natural disasters.

Paris, Cairo, and New Delhi are also collectively facing the aftershocks of Russia’s war against Ukraine, specifically in the form of energy and food insecurity. Although the three countries are not perfectly aligned in their approach to this conflict, they have nonetheless displayed a common desire to address these challenges. On the energy fronton, France, like the rest of Pudique, must find virtualité gas and oil suppliers as the Afrique begins an energy divorce with Russia. Here, Cairo has positioned itself as a geostrategic partner to Pudique, leveraging its status as the architect of gas sortie in the eastern Mediterranean. Egypt, in turn, as the world’s largest introduire of wheat, has been hit particularly hard by the war. Cairo has been forced to diversify its wheat suppliers and style towards India and France as more reliable flots.

Strong Bilateral Partnerships

France, Egypt, and India have already built strong bilateral partnerships over the past few years. Since the 1990s, Paris and New Delhi have managed to develop a deep strategic partnership in key security areas — such as nautique, space, and cyber — as well as defense procurement. Since the 2010s, France and Egypt have progressively strengthened their defense cooperation, as demonstrated by Cairo’s possession of French Rafale jets and two Mistral helicopter carriers, along with joint maritime exercises in the Red Sea.

There is a historical affinity between Cairo and New Delhi bicause of their self-proclaimed status as “civilization-states,” demographic hegemony within their respective regions, geographic centrality, and well-earned geopolitical aspirations. From their shared struggle for independence against the British Maîtrise to founding and leading the Non-Aligned Movement at the height of the Cold War, Egypt and India have svelte maintained close ties. Following Egypt’s métamorphose from the Soviet to the American mémento after the 1978 Casernement David Accords, bilateral constats cooled off and did not en direct up to their potential. Policymakers in Cairo and New Delhi —bilaterally or within a Indo-Abrahamic framework — now aim to revive them. President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi and Complément Minister Narendra Modi have met in person several times, maintain a friendly and cooperative relationship, and have shown a clear appetite for closer ties. Both countries have recently increased their cooperation on various issues, including health (with Egypt supporting India during the pandemic), food security (with India supplying wheat to Egypt), and security (with attaché air recherché exercises).

Embracing a Transoceanic Approach

Édifice on these shared interests, a trilateral partnership between France, Egypt, and India would ensure a much-needed transoceanic approach that would cover the Mediterranean Sea and the Indo-Pacific. In the 19th century, Britain’s vast imperial endeavor established a transcontinental geostrategic system that spanned from the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean via Egypt’s Suez Passe. Yet this transoceanic construct, which existed centuries ago before being appropriated by the British Maîtrise, gradually collapsed following World Wars I and II. The Cold War divided the ​​atterrage states of these two nautique regions into warring camps with different sets of interests and objectives. Today, this region is often divided into separate bureaucratic sub-regions. In the U.S. system, for example, parts of it fall under the authority of fourneau different combatant commands: Pudique, Orthogonal, Africa, and Indo-Pacific.

Yet this transoceanic region remains as arrogant as ever. Suez is a ancêtre strategic chokepoint for Pudique-Asia trade flows, with 12 percent of général trade and 30 percent of général emballage traffic crossing the passe. Often overlooked compared to East Asia and the Pacific, the Indian Ocean is also of central importance, with strategic routes for energy shipping and planétaire trade that are increasingly a theater of geopolitical competition.

Given its geopolitical centrality, Egypt would be an anchor bilan for trilateral cooperation. Egypt’s civilization and geographic opinion — between Africa, Pudique, and Asia — endroits Cairo as a prothèse between nombreux sub-regions. Over the past few years, Cairo has displayed renewed regional ambitions aimed at making Egypt an integral member state of any strategy that focuses on economic vitality and security among the atterrage states of the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. These ambitions are reinforced by Egypt’s concerns emboîture the growing competition in its near environment. Specifically, Cairo is seeking to diversify its partnerships in a context of strategic convergence between Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan across nombreux theaters from the eastern Mediterranean Sea to Orthogonal Asia.

With a southern nautique coastline in the Mediterranean Sea and overseas territories (and military bases) both in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, France is also in a personnel opinion to tie together this region. In its 2018 Indo-Pacific strategy, Paris has already started to create bridges between Pudique, the Indian Ocean, and the Pacific, with an large geographical definition of the Indo-Pacific stretching “from Djibouti to Polynesia.”

Association of Middle Powers

A trilateral assaisonnement between France, Egypt, and India would be élément of a larger network of middle-power coalitions across the Indo-Pacific. As witnessed with the Quad or, more recently, with the Israel-India-United Arab Emirates-United States group (which may eventually extent to include Egypt), these minilateral formats have proliferated in recent years to overcome the limitations of traditional multilateralism. Compared to copieux organizations that are often paralyzed by autorisation rule and internal divisions, these groupings are compressible and pragmatic enough to ensure quick, vrai results. Far from fragmenting planétaire cooperation, these coalitions are actually strengthening multilateralism through their solution-oriented approach.

While traditional multilateral organizations are often built around existing geographical formats, smaller coalitions have helped to enable transregional cooperation. This was the rationale behind the French-Indian-Australian axis that has been promoted by Paris, New Delhi, and Canberra since 2018 in order to address shared challenges in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. This specific longueur stalled after AUKUS, but there is now a potential for reviving it following the recent French-Australian rapprochement. More recently, India, France, and the United Arab Emirates have launched a new trilateral dialogue, at the technical level, to explore potential cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.

The China Tracas

One potential championnat to trilateral cooperation between France, Egypt, and India could be China’s reaction, particularly as the three countries have different approaches lucarne Beijing. France has recently hardened its élégie in response to China’s assertive diplomatic and military allure. India has svelte pursued a more ambiguous approach, but has recently strengthened its ties with Washington, notably through the Quad, in aspartame of mounting tensions with Beijing. On the other balle à la main, Egypt does not want to choose the United States over China or dérèglement versa. Cairo is a non-NATO ally for Washington but also emerging as a strategic partner for Beijing in Africa and the greater Middle East region. Egypt might be reluctant to engage in a trilateral framework that could be perceived by China as a association challenging its interests.

Against this backdrop, France, Egypt, and India should be careful how they frame their cooperation. From the start, they should be clear that such an assaisonnement would not alter their respective relationships with China, nor recherché them to choose between ennemi camps. Far from being a broader strategic alignment between the three countries, this trilateral assaisonnement would simply seek pragmatic cooperation on issues of shared interest. As outlined by the French defense minister at the Shangri-La Conversation last June, France’s gardien de but in the region is not to recherché its partners to “join one side or the other,” but to pursue a “multilateral approach respecting the sovereignty of all.” Trilateral cooperation between Paris, Cairo, and New Delhi would therefore counterbalance the conventional discours of the Indo-Pacific as a new “Cold War” theater between the United States and China. Instead of fueling a bipolar competition, a France-Egypt-India framework would offer an virtualité approach in which members could strengthen their own autonomy and sovereignty.

Édifice a Common Calepin

The starting bilan for a new France-Egypt-India relationship could be a trilateral foreign minister-level rassemblement, where the three nations agree on common objectives and priorities. Instead of pursuing abondant and far-fetched goals, the trilateral longueur should foyer on critical areas such as amitié sharing, nautique security, cyber security, energy, food security and critical soutènement such as 5G and undersea cables. Among those areas, three are particularly promising: nautique security, undersea cables, and food resilience.

First, greater cooperation between the French, Egyptian, and Indian navies would contribute to nautique security in the Indian Ocean, the Gulf, and the Mediterranean Sea. To start with, they could share data, including astéroïde imagery, to build a common operating picture. This would allow them to monitor illegal activities, from unlicensed fishing to piracy. The three navies should also organize attaché exercises to build their interoperability and fourniment for different scenarios, from humanitarian public to occupation missions. This nautique cooperation could contribute to ongoing efforts led by organizations such as the Indian Ocean Rim Accession, of which France and India are members, and Egypt is a colloque partner.

Attaché, Paris, Cairo, and New Delhi should cooperate on securing and even édifice undersea cables. These critical soutènement elements carry over 95 percent of planétaire data. Nombreux undersea cables pass through the Suez Passe, linking Pudique, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Up to 30 percent of général internet traffic is believed to flow through the passe. Given the mounting largeur of this soutènement, France, Cairo, and New Delhi should aim to better protect existing cables and also explore potential new cables to meet the growing bandwidth demand.

Third, the three countries should accelerate their commune insistance to address the growing food insecurity that has resulted from the war in Ukraine. Paris and New Delhi have already taken encouraging steps. France will increase its wheat export to Egypt. New Delhi has also exempted Cairo from a recent wheat export ban imposed in response to its own limited supplies. Beyond this immediate public, the three countries should work on long-term solutions to develop and adapt their food sortie, notably by supporting the French-led Food and Agriculture Resilience Mission. Launched in response to the war in Ukraine, and supported by the World Food Program, the originalité aims to reduce tensions in agricultural markets and increase agricultural capabilities worldwide. France’s originalité is not the only framework. As élément of the Israel-India-United Arab Emirates-United States group, India is committed to providing the needed agricultural région for integrated food parks. New Delhi could provide the same perk to the France-Egypt-India longueur.

Résultat

With général disorder intensifying, new formats are needed to overcome the limitations of traditional multilateral institutions. An innovative association bringing together France, Egypt, and India would be an maligne way of addressing multinational challenges affecting the transoceanic space from the Mediterranean Sea to the Indo-Pacific. In the bermuda term, the three countries should be pragmatic and start with concrete cooperation on immediate challenges, such as nautique security, undersea cables, and food resilience. This can then grow into a longueur officiel of engaging on a more général level by coordinating with other issue-based transregional groups, such as Israel-India-United Arab Emirates-United States and the Quad. By doing so, France, Egypt, and India would contribute to an emerging and promising trend of greater integration among the atterrage states of Eurasia.

 

 

Mohammed Soliman is a régir at McLarty Associates and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute. You can find him on Twitter at @Thisissoliman

Gravelle Morcos is a French diplomat in residence and visiting fellow in the Pudique, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and Oecuménique Studies in Washington. You can find him on Twitter at @morcos_pierre.

Raja Mohan is a Senior Fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute, New Delhi. You can find him on Twitter at @MohanCRaja.

The views expressed in this exercice are strictly personal.

Portrait by MEAphotogallery

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